Agreement on a memorandum of understanding between Iran and the US became a complex and unpredictable process that nearly collapsed after an Israeli strike on a southern suburb of Beirut. An unofficial signing took place on Wednesday in the presence of a Qatari mediator; the formal announcement was postponed until Sunday evening. After the attack, Tehran considered a military response that could have destroyed all the agreements reached.
Qatari and American diplomacy played a decisive role in de-escalation, persuading Tehran to avoid steps that could undermine the advanced negotiations. Despite the tension, the parties reached an agreement, but two key disagreements required the Qatari mediator to return to Tehran. The disputes concerned the status of the Strait of Hormuz and $24 billion in frozen Iranian assets.
The issue of the Strait of Hormuz caused friction because the text was incompatible with statements by the Supreme Leader, who had previously said the strait “will not return to its former state.” The clause was referred to the National Security Council, then to a six-party commission, and until the last moment remained subject to approval by the Supreme Leader. Edits were made to make the wording clearer and to reassure conservative circles.
The dispute over the $24 billion was resolved after Qatar convinced Tehran of the reliability of American guarantees, given past experience of failed access to those funds. Expert Hassan Ahmadian noted that the agreement gave Iran two bargaining chips instead of just the nuclear one: control over the strait became a “negotiating table” with Washington. The deal separates the issues — opening the strait for commercial shipping with Iran-Oman monitoring, while the nuclear dossier is deferred for 60 days with the possibility of extension.
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif announced a peace agreement aimed at ending hostilities on all fronts, including the Lebanese front. A signing ceremony is scheduled for June 19 in Switzerland, giving the deal official international status. However, analysts warn that the risk remains that Washington will be unable to restrain Israel, which could return the parties to square one.
Comments on the news
- Why is the Strait of Hormuz so important to Iran, and what role does it play in global energy security? — The Strait of Hormuz is a strategic narrow passage between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman through which about 20–25% of global oil trade transits. For Iran, control of it is a lever of influence: Tehran has repeatedly threatened to close the strait in response to sanctions or military threats, which could trigger a sharp rise in oil prices and disrupt energy supplies to countries in Asia, Europe, and North America.
- What events led to the freezing of $24 billion in Iranian assets, and why is Tehran skeptical of US guarantees for their unfreezing? — The asset freeze is linked to the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal (JCPOA) in 2018 under Donald Trump and the subsequent tightening of sanctions. In 2023, an agreement was reached to unfreeze $6 billion in exchange for the release of American detainees, but Iran is skeptical of US guarantees because of the “precedent of broken commitments” (the unilateral exit from the deal) and domestic political resistance in the US to such measures.
- What role does Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei play in approving Iran’s international agreements, and how do his powers differ from those of the president? — The Supreme Leader (rahbar) has the final word on all matters of national security, foreign policy, and the nuclear program, including the ratification of international agreements. The President of Iran, under the Constitution, is responsible for executive power and conducting negotiations, but cannot sign final agreements without Khamenei’s approval. In practice, the rahbar controls key institutions (the Expediency Discernment Council, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps), which gives him the authority to block presidential decisions if they conflict with his strategic vision.
Full version: كواليس إنقاذ الاتفاق الأمريكي الإيراني.. هكذا أقرته دوائر صنع القرار في طهران