Early results from the November 3 election in Washington state paint a political picture of unusual clarity: Democrats are firmly holding key positions, could win two-thirds of the seats in the state House, and have defeated an effort to repeal the new tax on very high incomes. But the picture is not entirely uniform. In Eastern Washington, Republican Michael Baumgartner is narrowly holding on to his seat in Congress, while a conservative initiative on transgender girls in school sports is passing comfortably. Results remain unofficial: as of the evening of November 4, about 2.23 million ballots had been counted, with roughly 668,000 more awaiting processing.
The main story of election night was not simply another Democratic win in a “blue” state, but the scale of that victory. If the current margins hold, Democrats will control 68 of the 98 seats in the state House—nine more than before. A two-thirds majority would allow them to approve bond issues, propose amendments to the state constitution, and override a governor’s veto without Republican votes. Their advantage in the state Senate could also grow, from 30–19 to 31–18. For Republicans, who have long been in the minority in Olympia, this means losing several more of their traditional strongholds—from the state’s southwest to the Yakima Valley and the Puyallup area.
The most decisive victory came in the 3rd Congressional District, which includes Clark County and much of southwestern Washington. Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, who first won in 2022 only after a recount and then was reelected with less than 52 percent of the vote, received about 55 percent this time against state Senate Republican Leader John Braun. Braun will return to Olympia: his state Senate seat was not up for election this year. But the federal campaign, in which Republicans had high hopes, ended for him in a swift and painful defeat.
The only major exception is the 5th District in Eastern Washington. Incumbent Republican Congressman Michael Baumgartner leads Democrat Carmela Conroy by about 2,700 votes: 50.5 percent to 49.2 percent. Two years ago, Baumgartner beat her by more than 20 percentage points, so the close race itself has become a political story. The district, which includes Spokane and a vast rural area in the eastern part of the state, traditionally votes Republican. But the large number of ballots still uncounted means the outcome cannot yet be considered settled.
Of the three statewide initiatives, Initiative 645 was the most telling. Its supporters sought to repeal the income tax on earnings above $1 million a year enacted by the legislature and to bar state and local governments from imposing individual income taxes. The law sets a 9.9 percent rate on income above $1 million starting January 1, 2028. About 58 percent of voters are rejecting the initiative. For a state where efforts to establish an income tax have failed for decades, this is a notable shift—though the legal battle is only beginning: the tax’s constitutionality will almost certainly be challenged in court.
At the same time, voters showed that a partisan wave does not erase distinct, deeply personal issues. Initiative 638, which would bar transgender girls from competing in girls’ school sports, is receiving about 56.6 percent of the vote. It is passing in 36 of the state’s 39 counties, including Clark County, where the same voters backed Gluesenkamp Perez by a majority. Initiative 001, which would have expanded schools’ obligations to inform parents about their children’s counseling and medical care, is meanwhile losing. The results show that Washington’s electorate can support more progressive tax policy while also approving a socially conservative restriction—one that is also likely to face lawsuits.
Five seats on the state Supreme Court are at stake in this election, amounting to a majority of its nine seats. This unusually large turnover became possible because of several retirements. Judicial elections in Washington are officially nonpartisan, but party affiliations were clear this time: candidates backed by Gov. Bob Ferguson and Democratic organizations are leading in four races. The only genuinely close contest is for an open seat between appellate court judge Ian Birk and King County Superior Court Judge Sean O’Donnell. This court may ultimately have to decide the fate of the millionaire tax.
Vote counting in Washington takes time by design: the state votes almost entirely by mail, and ballots postmarked by November 3 are accepted even after Election Day. Counties will continue to release updates in the coming days, and official certification is scheduled for November 24. For Baumgartner and Conroy, that means several more anxious evenings; for both parties, it means time to recognize that even in predictably Democratic Washington, the electoral landscape has become more complicated than the old labels suggest.
Based on: 7 Election Day takeaways for WA as vote counts continue